Published 2026-07-03 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (low conviction)
$0–$15
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
A first-set full-art SEC that's drifted to bulk (~$8 raw) — cheap, asymmetric upside on a popular Wano character. Not the serialized grail.
- Not the grail: this is the pack-pulled base SEC, not the serialized Yamato — priced accordingly (~$8 raw).
- Set: a flagship Romance Dawn (OP01) full-art alt of a popular Wano character.
- Grading spread: raw ~$8 vs PSA 10 ~$100 — real upside on a clean, cheap copy.
- Cap: reprinted, deep supply and soft demand — already de-rated from earlier highs.
- Founder holds this card (disclosed position, cost basis ~$0.50).
Biggest risk: Soft demand and a reprinted, deep supply cap the floor's tightness — this has already de-rated. Value is entirely demand/nostalgia-driven with no scarcity underneath.
Sources: SNKRDUNK (OP01-121 SEC, card 93517)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$7 from 4 sold comps ($7–$14); latest 2026-07-03.
- Liquidity ~4.0 sales/yr; stable regime.
Comparables: Shanks OP01-120 SEC · Other Romance Dawn SEC alt-arts
Forecast band
Bull
$18
Bear
$0
6–24mo range
$0–$15
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 40/100
- Character popularity7/10 ×3
Yamato — solid, durable Wano-arc collector demand.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity3/10 ×3
SEC pulled from Romance Dawn boosters — not prize-gated.
- Artwork uniqueness7/10 ×2.5
Full-art Secret Rare alternate treatment.
- Collector demand3/10 ×2
Bulk-priced today (~$8 raw); soft demand.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions4/10 ×1.5
SEC + SEC-P parallel + later reprints — real substitution pressure.
- Estimated print availability3/10 ×1.5
Booster SEC from the first set; deep supply, since reprinted.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
Romance Dawn — the flagship first set.
- Regional availability4/10 ×1
JP print.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 7/10 | ×3 | Yamato — solid, durable Wano-arc collector demand. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 3/10 | ×3 | SEC pulled from Romance Dawn boosters — not prize-gated. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 7/10 | ×2.5 | Full-art Secret Rare alternate treatment. |
| Collector demand | 3/10 | ×2 | Bulk-priced today (~$8 raw); soft demand. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 4/10 | ×1.5 | SEC + SEC-P parallel + later reprints — real substitution pressure. |
| Estimated print availability | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Booster SEC from the first set; deep supply, since reprinted. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Romance Dawn — the flagship first set. |
| Regional availability | 4/10 | ×1 | JP print. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |