Public, dated Buy / Avoid calls for One Piece TCG — winners and losers stay up, and every card the founder holds is disclosed. Not financial advice.
BVB × Matchday · ST13
The Borussia Dortmund × One Piece Matchday Luffy — a football-kit alt-art sharing the ST13-003 serial with the ~$15 Ultra Deck base Leader, but trading ~$696 raw and four figures in PSA 10. The bet: a one-off cross-fandom collab (football + anime) on fixed, event-only, EN/Europe-exclusive supply keeps climbing, while Google and the price apps keep mis-pricing it by blending it with the $15 base. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Gold-Text Leader Collection · ST13
The gold-text ST13-003 — the Premium Card Collection parallel, told apart from the ~$15 base by GOLD name text (the base is silver). Never sold in packs: it came only inside a $15 six-card collection Bandai sold at its own events (BCG Fest 24-25 World Tour, plus the Championship 2024 Finals in North America and Europe). US sold has firmed from ~$76 in May to the level shown above. The edge: a live ~3× JP/US regional gap (SNKRDUNK JP asks ~$50 vs US sold much higher) on the identical card, on a print run that ended with the events. Founder holds this card raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Base Gear 5 SEC · Awakening of the New Era
The base Gear 5 SEC — the iconic colored Gear 5 everyone pictures, and the cheapest way into the OP05-119 serial. It's cheap because it was heavily printed and reprinted in PRB-01, not because it's unwanted. The bet: as the only affordable entry to a number whose parallels run $350–$33,000, the base absorbs demand from collectors priced out of the parallels and re-rates toward the target. Founder does not hold this English print (corrected 2026-09-15: the founder's OP05-119 SEC is the Japanese copy, on its own call). TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $80 -> $33. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $80 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Alt-Art Leader · 500 Years in the Future
The OP07-038 full-art Boa Hancock alt-art Leader — a scarce, in-demand foil of one of the most-collected characters in the game, on a deep graded market. The bet: rising Boa demand (new product keeps her top-of-mind) plus fixed OP07 alt-art supply re-rates it toward the target above. Priced RAW here (the current raw sold median is shown above); PSA 10 copies trade separately and higher. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
2nd Anniversary Stamped · 2nd Anniversary · English
English 2nd-Anniversary stamped Luffy — the “crowned King” art. The English print was event-only (exhibitions & competitions), so it's far scarcer than the Japanese copies, and English demand runs higher. Raw clears at the real sold comps shown above; founder has held since January and sees room toward the dated target as English demand firms. TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $100 -> $59. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $100 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Event Top Prize · Official Event Top Prize · Japanese
Official Event Top-Prize Luffy — handed out only to top finishers, so the print run is a rounding error next to any retail card. Founder has held since January (entry, current price and multiple are shown above, kept current from the sold-comp ledger). PSA 10 comps cooled from a May–June spike but the position is well in the money. The upward-arrow design language Bandai reserves for tournament, event and promo cards is the same tell that has historically preceded low print runs and durable demand.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
WSJ55 · Weekly Shonen Jump 55th Anniversary · Japan
The definitive Gear 5 “awakening” chase art — the image collectors actually want — on a one-time Weekly Shonen Jump 55th Anniversary subscriber promo carrying the official Jump 55th stamp (authentic Jump-anniversary provenance is a core collectibility driver). Supply is fixed (campaign over, no reprints) and Japan-gated, so it reads scarcer abroad than its raw print count. Founder has held the raw since January; the raw comp has since re-rated well above the entry (real sold sales shown above), and graded PSA 10 copies list at multiples of that with graded sales still thin — a large grading-EV gap on a cheap raw. Buy the RAW near comp, not the 4–5× local RM asks. Honest caveat: the market is thin, so this is a high-conviction call on the collectible thesis (iconic art + capped, gated supply), not on deep liquidity — disclosed.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Musée Grévin Paris · Exclusive Promo
The Musée Grévin Paris exclusive Luffy Leader — a French museum promo on the OP13-001 serial. THE THESIS HAS BROKEN. Our own late-July ledger marked this at $802.69 on real sold comps; on 1-2 September it cleared five separate times at EUR 110-150 (~$128-174), and the listing page has filled with pre-orders and 'ships 15/09' sell-throughs. That is the signature of a restock or a wider release, not a thin-market wobble — the fixed-supply case this call rested on no longer holds. Marked to ~$162 on 2 Sep, an 80% drawdown; it has firmed a little since on both eBay and SNKRDUNK (ledger above). Graded copies (BGS 10 ~$660-736) have not fallen as far, which is what you would expect if raw supply is what changed. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed). TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $1,050 -> $710. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $1,050 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP08 · Two Legends
The OP-08 “Two Legends” Treasure Rare Luffy (card no. OP07-109) — an English-only, roughly one-per-case alt-art chase. Treasure Rares are structurally scarce: one per set, English/international-only (Japan gets God Packs instead), with a small fixed population. Founder has held since ~$150 (disclosed). Refreshed 2026-09-02 on TCGplayer (via Limitless), which prices the 'Two Legends aa' printing separately: $314.51, essentially holding the $350 July mark. The TR ceiling is high — regional CN/FR Treasure Rares already run into the thousands, and PSA 10 copies here already clear four figures. Honest caveat: the raw TR market is thin and auction-driven, so the sold median swings. TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $1,000 -> $850. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $1,000 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP06 · Wings of the Captain
Forward call, not held. The OP-06 “Wings of the Captain” Treasure Rare Nami (ST01-007 alt-art) — the first Treasure Rare ever printed, which gives it a “genesis” collector story on top of the standard TR scarcity (English-only, 1 per set, ~1 per case). Refreshed 2026-09-02 on TCGplayer (via Limitless), which prices the 'Wings of the Captain' TR separately from the seven other printings on this serial: $279.51, holding the $299.99 July mark. We see room to the target on durable Nami / Straw Hat demand and the high TR ceiling. Conviction is Medium: a forward call on a thin, auction-driven raw market.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of OP15-047
RE-GRADED 2026-09-02 on settled sold comps. The soccer alt-art of the existing OP15-047 Sanji -- same serial, exclusive Round1 art, and the most dynamic design in the set. The price above is derived from the sold ledger (English raw NM sales on TCGplayer and eBay, re-checked 15 Sep 2026), against the $120 we published on 30 July. The Japanese print clears $20-25. Target reset 2026-09-02 from $200 to $85: the same 1.67x multiple the original July call implied, re-anchored to the corrected quote rather than to the spike price. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SEC-P Alt-Art · OP13
The OP13 SEC-P alt-art Luffy shares its pose and composition with the two marquee chases of the set — the Comic 'manga' (SEC-SP) and Red Comic 'red manga' (SEC-RSP), both of which have run up exponentially into the set's grails. As those siblings cement their status, the SEC-P inherits their design relevance as the accessible entry point, on top of OP13's expensive pack-cost floor. Refreshed 2026-09-02 on TCGplayer (via Limitless), which prices the 'Carrying on His Will aa' printing separately from the base and the two manga chases: $81.59, down from $106.28 in July as the whole OP13 chase group cooled. Founder holds from ~$10 (disclosed), so the position is still up ~8x.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Promotion Pack EX Vol.4
A 1-of-12 regional-pull promo Nami (Promotion Pack EX Vol.4 'Matching Battle') on a firm EB03 base. Founder holds from ~$350 (disclosed); the JP market (SNKRDUNK, where this promo trades natively) puts the single at ~$104 as of 2026-09-02, down from a $198 mark in July — an honest and now much deeper underwater position, shown above. The bet for recovery toward the target is the 1-of-12 scarcity plus surging Nami demand. Not the ~$2 Heroines Edition base R that shares the number. TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $650 -> $390. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $650 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · ONE PIECE DAY'24
An all-Gears design Luffy from ONE PIECE DAY'24 — competition-only, event-gated supply. The visitor-benefit distribution caps the population and the all-Gears art drives collector demand. Refreshed 2026-09-02 on the JP market (SNKRDUNK), where this promo trades natively: raw cond-A asks $224, down from a $350 raw mark in July, and PSA 10 asks have come in to ~$376–425 from ~$640–950. The event-gated supply case is intact; the price simply gave back its summer run. Founder holds from ~$50 (disclosed), so the position is still up ~4.5x.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SEC-SP · The Time of Battle (SR-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) SR-SP Sakazuki — the #1 chase of OP16 'The Time of Battle' and the headline of the set's 3-Admirals manga trio (with Kuzan 063 and Borsalino 073). The new-set spike has unwound: repriced 2026-09-02 on five eBay raw clears from $850 to $1,190 plus the $1,166 TCGplayer print, the card sits at ~$1,050 against the ~$2,800 sold median we carried in July — a 62% drawdown. PSA 10 has fallen with it, to ~$1,625-1,825 from ~$3,200-3,700. The 'modern-set volatility' risk this call named is exactly what happened. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$0.34 base SR or the ~$13 alt-art parallel that share the number. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed). TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $3,500 -> $3,400. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $3,500 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
R-SP · The Time of Battle (R-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) R-SP Kuzan — the second Admiral of the OP16 3-Admirals manga chase (with Sakazuki 065 and Borsalino 073). Repriced 2026-09-02 on six eBay raw clears from $800 to $1,284 plus the $1,146 TCGplayer print: ~$1,100, against the ¥320,000 (~$2,133) mark we carried in July — a 48% drawdown as the new-set spike unwound. PSA 10 clears ~$1,775-2,025 and BGS 10 ~$2,375, so the grading gap is still real. Still the cheapest raw of the three Admirals. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$0.16 base R or the ~$5 alt-art parallel. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
R-SP · The Time of Battle (R-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) R-SP Borsalino — the third Admiral of the OP16 3-Admirals manga chase (completing Sakazuki 065 + Kuzan 063). Repriced 2026-09-02 on four eBay raw clears ($777, $980, $1,000, $1,000) plus the $1,043 TCGplayer print: ~$1,000, against the ¥328,000 (~$2,187) mark we carried in July — a 54% drawdown. PSA 10 clears ~$2,000 and BGS 10 $1,950-$2,898, so the grading gap here is the widest of the trio. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$0.14 base R or the ~$5 alt-art parallel. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Promotion Pack Vol.4
A clean Leader print of the franchise's most-collected character, held cheaply as an underdog bet: a bulk-priced entry with limited downside and room to appreciate if Luffy-leader demand or early-promo nostalgia firms up. High print keeps supply deep — the main cap on upside. Founder holds from ~$5 (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Winner Pack 2026 Vol. 2 · English
The gold-stamped WINNER Luffy from Store Tournament 2026 Vol. 2. It still clears well above the ~$10 no-stamp Participation twin, but the raw has softened hard: five English clears between 27 Aug and 1 Sep sit at $75-$100 (median $80), against the $130.20 we marked in July — a 39% drawdown. The bet is unchanged in kind: WINNER cards keep appreciating and a Luffy WINNER is the one most likely to, with graded copies (PSA 10 ~$295, BGS 10 ~$305) showing where a clean copy can go. But the prize line is recurring, and this quarter supply has outrun demand. Founder holds raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
GEAR Alt-Art · Awakening of the New Era
The 'GEAR' alternate art — the scarce OP05-119 parallel with the purple 'GEAR' manga treatment, not the cheap base SEC it shares a number with. Refreshed 2026-09-02 on TCGplayer (via Limitless), which prices the OP05 'aa' printing separately from the base: $210.10, down from a $350 English raw mark in July. The bet: a scarce parallel of the game's most-collected character, constantly mis-priced against its base twin, re-rates toward the target as the disambiguation sticks. PSA 10 copies trade higher. Founder holds the JAPANESE print raw (disclosed). CORRECTED 2026-09-15: the founder's copy is the Japanese print, so the call is now priced on Japanese sales (SNKRDUNK) rather than the English TCGplayer figures quoted above.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of OP16-095
RE-GRADED 2026-09-02 on settled sold comps. Identity: the bowling alt-art of the existing OP16-095 Luffy -- same serial, exclusive Round1 event art. The price above is derived from the sold ledger: English raw NM sales on TCGplayer and eBay, re-checked 15 Sep 2026. Our 30 July figure of $575 was real but it was taken at the launch spike; the English print has since given most of it back. Our ORIGINAL pre-release read ($80-200+) was the accurate one, and the July re-grade that called it a miss was itself the error. The scarcity facts have not changed (~9,000 packs, closed campaign window, marquee character); what changed is that hype pricing decayed. Graded copies are a separate, much stronger market. Target reset 2026-09-02 from $700 to $230: the same 1.22x multiple the original July call implied, re-anchored to the corrected quote rather than to the spike price. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of PRB02-006
RE-GRADED 2026-09-02 on settled sold comps. The baseball alt-art of the existing PRB02-006 Zoro -- same serial, exclusive Round1 art. The price above is derived from the sold ledger (English raw NM sales on TCGplayer and eBay, re-checked 15 Sep 2026); the $265 we published on 30 July was a launch-spike price and most of it has been given back. The Japanese print trades lower again ($51 at auction). PSA 10 English cleared $800 -- graded is a different asset. Target reset 2026-09-02 from $350 to $105: the same 1.32x multiple the original July call implied, re-anchored to the corrected quote rather than to the spike price. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of ST29-008
RE-GRADED 2026-09-02 on settled sold comps. The Round1 alt-art of the existing ST29-008 Nami -- same serial, exclusive event art. The price above is derived from the sold ledger (English raw NM sales on TCGplayer and eBay, re-checked 15 Sep 2026), against the $265.99 we published on 30 July. Target reset 2026-09-02 from $350 to $120: the same 1.32x multiple the original July call implied, re-anchored to the corrected quote rather than to the spike price. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SEC · OP13
The base secret-rare Luffy of Carrying On His Will — the accessible floor beneath the set's chase parallels (the SEC-P alt-art, the ~$1,733 manga SEC-SP and the ~$9,663 red-manga SEC-RSP). OP13's steep pack/case cost gives even the base SEC a real cost-to-obtain, and the whole design's premium tows it. Founder holds from ~$0.30 (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SEC-SP · OP13
The manga-panel (コミパラ) SEC-SP Ace — the middle brother of the OP13 '3 Brothers' chase set (OP13-118 Luffy / OP13-119 Ace / OP13-120 Sabo), the sibling to the SEC-P Luffy the founder holds. Ace is one of the most emotionally-collected characters in the fandom. Repriced 2026-09-02 on real eBay clears: raw sold $900 (English, 24 Aug) and $946 (Japanese, 25 Jul), with the TCGplayer print at $1,086 — so ~$946, down from the ¥178,000 (~$1,187) mark we carried in July. PSA 10 has come in hard too, from ~$1,850 in June to ~$1,126-1,251 on SNKRDUNK today. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base SEC, the ~$60 WANTED-poster SEC-SPC, the SEC-P parallel, or the red-manga SEC-RSP (~$3,614). Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SEC-SP · OP13
The manga-panel (コミパラ) SEC-SP Sabo — the third brother of the OP13 '3 Brothers' chase set, completing the trio with the founder's OP13-118 Luffy and the OP13-119 Ace. Repriced 2026-09-02 on real eBay clears: raw sold $600.65, $645 and $699 through late August, with the TCGplayer print at $749 — so ~$672, against the ¥110,000 (~$733) mark we carried in July. The cheapest entry of the three brothers, so still the accessible leg of a set collectors chase together. PSA 10 clears ~$980-1,280. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$11 base SEC, the WANTED-poster SEC-SPC, the SEC-P parallel, or the red-manga SEC-RSP (~$2,800). Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SP · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SP)
The SR-SPC ('Special') ornate art-nouveau Boa Hancock from EB03 Heroines Edition — the set's #1 chase pull, on one of the most-collected characters in the game. Repriced 2026-09-02 on real eBay clears: raw sold $935.52, $1,189.41 and $1,399.99 through late August, with the TCGplayer print at $1,421 — so ~$1,295, holding the $1,220 mark we carried in July. Note the wide regional spread: the Japanese board (SNKRDUNK) has a single cond-A listing asking ~$1,001, well under the English clears. TRAP serial: the common EB03-026 SR (~$0.82) and the SR-P alt-art parallel (~$39) share the number — don't confuse them. Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SP · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SR-SPC)
The SR-SPC ('Special') ornate art-nouveau Nico Robin from EB03 Heroines Edition — the third of the set's chase trio (with Boa 026 and Nami 053). Priced, as this call always has been, on the JAPANESE print (SNKRDUNK plus eBay's Japanese sales, re-checked 15 Sep), essentially flat on the $547 we marked in July — the only card in this group that did not sell off. PSA 10 (JP) has cooled to ~$616 from ~$900, so the grading lever is thinner. FLAG FOR REVIEW: a single English clear at $1,400 on 31 Aug and a $1,465 TCGplayer print suggest the English print trades ~2.7x the Japanese one — the widest regional spread in this book. One sale is not enough to re-base a call on, but if that spread is real the target here is far too low. TRAP serial: the common EB03-055 SR (~$9) and the SR-P alt-art parallel (~$46) share the number. Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Monsters Official Guidebook
A scarce guidebook-box promo of Ryuma — a cult-favourite swordsman with crossover appeal to Zoro collectors. Tight one-off distribution keeps supply thin: the plain raw sits at the liquid auction clears shown above, with graded PSA 10s clearing many multiples higher — a large grading-EV gap. Founder holds from a bulk entry; the dated target is the first benchmark. Honest caveat: a thin, noisy market — BIN and Oda-stamped copies ask well above the auction clears.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP05-119 · Awakening of the New Era
The base secret-rare Luffy from Awakening of the New Era — a marquee set whose comic-parallel siblings (SEC-P ~$118, SEC-SP ~$997) tow the base up. Cheap raw entry with a rising floor as the parallels climb. Founder holds from ~$1.50, now ~$10.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP09 · Emperors in the New World
The base secret-rare Luffy from Emperors in the New World, sitting under a ~$866 comic parallel (SEC-SP). A cheap raw entry on the franchise's flagship character with a floor that rises as the parallel and set demand hold. Founder holds from ~$0.50 (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
GEAR Alt-Art · Awakening of the New Era
A new dated call on the founder's Japanese copy, opened after the July call on this card closed as a miss (see the track record). The purple 'GEAR' alternate art is the scarce parallel of OP05-119, the game's most-collected character, and it has slid well below its summer level on SNKRDUNK — but asks now sit tight against the last accepted sales rather than undercutting them. The bet is smaller and shorter than before: a recovery to the target within six months, still below where the English print traded in July. Low conviction: the last call on this card failed, and the price has not yet proven a floor. Founder holds the Japanese print (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Winner Pack 2026 Vol. 2 · English
A new dated call, opened after the July call closed as a miss when raw fell under the line it set (see the track record). The gold-stamped WINNER Luffy still clears several times its no-stamp twin. The bet is narrow: a recovery to the target — its late-August eBay level — within six months, once this season's Winner wave stops adding supply. Low conviction: the line recurs every season, which is exactly what sank the last call. Founder holds raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Monsters Official Guidebook
A new dated call on the founder's copy, replacing the July call that was withdrawn for pricing the wrong print (see the track record). This is the Japanese ink-wash Ryuma that came as a bonus in the MONSTERS set box — Bandai's card list records only this and the later Best Selection print on the number. It has fallen steadily on SNKRDUNK since June. The bet: a recovery to the target — its late-July level — within six months. Low conviction: the market has not found a floor, and sales are thin. Founder holds (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Parallel Leader · 500 Years in the Future
The OP07-038 parallel Leader — the foil version of the base Boa portrait, a tier below the full-art alt-art but well above the ~$1 base, priced on real raw sold comps (shown above); PSA 10 trades higher. Same rising-Boa-demand thesis as the alt-art, toward the target. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
WSJ Foil · 2nd Anniversary · English
The Japanese Weekly Shonen Jump #36-37 FOIL of the “crowned King” Luffy — no event stamp, just the magazine foil print, the accessible chase of the P-043 family. HONEST UPDATE (2026-07-30): our original 2026-07-12 BUY (High conviction, $350 target) has NOT worked — the raw has kept softening, from spring ~$200–240 to ~$72 in July and ~$58 now on the JP market where it trades natively (SNKRDUNK accepted sales, shown above) — far below the ~$140 line we ourselves set as the invalidation. So we're downgrading to a low-conviction HOLD: fairly priced at the current raw, with PSA 10 (~$165) the only headroom, and that has come in hard too. Not a chase at these levels. TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $350 -> $225. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market, which no longer reads as a defensible dated call; the original $350 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Convention Foil · 2nd Anniversary · English
The rare Convention-Exclusive FOIL — the grail of the King-Luffy family. It trades almost entirely graded as PSA 10, off a tight band of recent foil sold comps from high-rep sellers (the exact sales and median are shown above). Priced in PSA 10 terms because raw copies almost never surface — a genuinely thin, high-end market where scarcity, not hype, sets the floor.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Winner Pack Vol. 1
Winner-stamped promo — a scarce tournament-prize print that's hard to replace. Founder bought NM at ~$50 in January (verified) and now rates it a buy: the winner stamp caps supply and underpins durable collector demand.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
EB02-010 · Anime 25th Collection
Alt-art Luffy Leader from the Official Playmat Limited Edition vol.5 promo — distributed mainly through competitions and events, so supply is capped. Founder entered around $250 on 20 June; the card-only single now clears above that on real sold comps (shown above), and the call is a buy toward the target as the event-only print and a top-tier Luffy alt-art keep demand firm.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP13
UPDATE 2026-09-15: the graded leg this call rests on has collapsed. This SR's PSA 10 cleared ~$1,150-1,450 in late June (the GameStop-buyback froth our Bonney post documented) and now sells ~$40-42 on eBay (8-12 Sep) against a ~$2 raw, so the graded-to-raw gap below no longer exists and the arbitrage case does not hold today; closed as a miss on 15 Sep (post-mortem below). Original thesis, unchanged: A grading-EV arbitrage, not a hype-chase. The raw SR trades around $8 while PSA 10 copies clear ~$2,000 — a ~250× graded-to-raw ratio when the norm is at most ~10×. That gap means the raw is structurally underpriced as a grading vehicle: buy raw cheap and the grading EV is enormous, so we see room for the raw to re-rate toward $30 (still only ~67×) as graders act on it. Buy the RAW — not the hyped PSA 10. Consistency note: we earlier flagged the thin-volume raw spike as possibly manufactured (see Market Watch); this call rests on the deeper graded-market dislocation, not the thin raw comps, and conviction is Low because both markets are thin. Founder has held since January at ~$0.50 (pre-spike) — disclosed. TARGET RESET 2026-09-15: $30 -> $7. After re-pricing on current sold comps the old target sat more than 300% above the market; the original $30 target stays on the record here.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
SP · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SR-SPC)
The SR-SPC 'Special' alt-art Nami from EB03 Heroines Edition — the ornate art-nouveau chase design (NOT the common SR ~$12 or the SR-P alt-art parallel ~$68 that share the number). CORRECTED 2026-09-02: an earlier pass today quoted the JAPANESE board at ~$532, but the English market is where this card actually trades deep, and eBay clears sit at $850-$1,000 (four accepted sales in the last three days) with the TCGplayer print at $1,316 — so ~$900. That is a genuine regional spread, not a move: the JP cond-A board really is near $532, and which print you buy matters more here than anywhere else in this book. Surging Nami demand and chase status are the buy case. Modern-set volatility is the risk. Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · ONE PIECE DAY'25 Premium Card Collection
The Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute Luffy from ONE PIECE DAY'25 — the franchise's most-collected character on a flagship-event showcase print, in a deep and liquid market. But it was reprinted once (Oct/Nov '25), so the lottery-scarce case is capped, and the raw has already re-rated well off its launch floor. Refreshed 2026-09-02 on the JP market (SNKRDUNK): raw cond-A asks $179, holding up against the $158.50 July mark. The grading lever has narrowed sharply though — JP PSA 10 accepted sales now cluster ~$212–217, so the raw-to-graded gap that carried this call is much thinner than the $350–430 US prints suggested in July. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Convention Foil · 2nd Anniversary · English
A new dated call, opened after the July call on this card closed as a miss (see the track record). The Convention-Exclusive foil is the rarest P-043 print and trades graded-only, as PSA 10. It fell through September, from its early-month clear to the latest sales. The bet: a recovery to the target — the level it cleared at the start of September — within six months, as the post-convention slab supply is absorbed. Low conviction: a thin, single-marketplace graded market that is still falling. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Magazine Vol.20 Promo · Official Event Top Prize · Japanese
Own it raw, don't chase it graded. The tell isn't the 36,828 PSA 10 population — it's that 80%+ of graded copies come back PSA 10: the top grade is the default outcome, not an achievement, so it carries no real scarcity. That turns the ~$100 raw → PSA 10 gap (shown above) into an open arbitrage — grade for ~$20, expect a 10 four times in five — which pumps ever more PSA 10s into supply. Released only Nov 2025, the raw pool is nowhere near drained, and Japan now clears PSA 10 at ~$216 (SNKRDUNK, ten accepted sales), and the premium has kept deflating exactly as this call predicted — down from $300 in July. Its fixed magazine print gives it a floor (dead money, not a falling knife), but there is no appreciation case here. Avoid the PSA 10 as an investment; the ~$100 raw is a fine collectible. Founder holds raw — disclosed; this call is on the graded premium, not the cheap raw.
Why we'd avoid
Founding members get fresh calls first — full reasoning, every position disclosed. Free while we're building. No card pitches, ever.
