One Piece TCG · AI valuation research
Not a price tracker. Each note is a falsifiable forecast: a fair value, the thesis behind it, exactly what would change our mind, and a pre-committed horizon — then it resolves on a permanent record. Numbers are model forecasts, not market quotes.
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Live forecasts
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Nothing has resolved yet — that's the point. Every forecast below is frozen and dated; as real sales land, this board fills in with hits and misses, permanently.
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An all-Gears (1→5) Luffy handed out only for competition/regional entry — event-gated supply of a design collectors chase for its own sake.
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The '25 One Piece Day Luffy — the Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute art. A ~$65 launch that re-rated ~4× in eight months, but it was reprinted once, so it's a demand story with a supply asterisk.
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The OP07-038 alt-art Leader — the full-art Boa Hancock (seated with Salome and the Kuja sisters) from 500 Years in the Future. The OP07 chase Leader, not the ~$1 base: it clears ~$120 raw and ~$275 PSA 10, on a deep, liquid graded market. Our bet is a scarce, in-demand Boa alt-art re-rates higher (target ~3×).
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The OP07-038 parallel Leader — the foil version of the base Boa Hancock portrait (holographic map treatment) from 500 Years in the Future. A tier below the full-art alt-art, above the ~$1 base: it clears ~$90 raw and ~$220 PSA 10. A Boa foil on rising character demand, our read is it drifts up with the alt-art (target ~3×).
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The OP07-038 base Boa Hancock Leader — the standard animation-art portrait you get in decks, and the ~$1.50 floor of the OP07-038 stack. Cheap because it's deck-filler supply, not because Boa isn't wanted. The value in this serial is in the alt-art, parallel and special prints, not here.
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The 'GEAR' alternate art — the OP05-119 parallel with the purple 'GEAR' manga treatment, Luffy mid-laugh. It shares its serial with the ~$15 base Gear 5 SEC but is a distinct, scarcer print: ~$350 raw and ~$700 PSA 10. Founder holds this card (disclosed).
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The OP05-119 Manga Rare — the comic-panel 'Alternate Art Manga' from Awakening of the New Era, and one of the game's crown-jewel Gear 5 grails. Same serial as the ~$15 base SEC, but the EN original trades ~$5,500 raw and ~$19,000 PSA 10 — the manga parallel is doing over 300× the base card.
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The Silver SP 'A Fist of Divine Speed' — the rainbow-foil anniversary Gear 5 Luffy carrying the OP05-119 serial. Not the ~$15 base and not the cheap non-foil 'special card': the EN/JP Silver SP clears ~$8,000 raw and ~$11,000 PSA 10.
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The Gold SP 'A Fist of Divine Speed' — the gold-foil anniversary Gear 5 Luffy, and the apex of the OP05-119 serial. Same ornate art as the Silver SP but in gold: it clears ~$12,500 raw and ~$17,000–18,500 PSA 10, with a BGS 10 topping $20,000+.
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The base Gear 5 SEC — the plain colored Gear 5 everyone pictures, and the cheapest way into the OP05-119 serial at ~$15 raw. Heavily printed and reprinted in PRB-01, so it sits at the floor of a number whose parallels run to $33,000. Founder holds this card (disclosed) and sees a re-rate toward $80.
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The BVB × One Piece Matchday Luffy — a Borussia Dortmund football-kit alt-art under the same ST13-003 number as the ~$15 base Leader. It clears ~$865 raw / ~$1,425 PSA 10: the collab art is doing ~50× of work over the base card, on cross-fandom demand and event-only supply.
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The gold-text ST13-003 — the Premium Card Collection 'Leader Collection' parallel, told apart from the ~$15 base by GOLD foil text (the base is silver). Never sold in a booster: it came only inside a $15 six-card collection at Bandai's own events. Trading ~$195 raw in the US and firming toward $185–280. The gold text is the whole story: same number, different card.
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The Gol D. Roger Manga Rare — the comic-panel 'Gold Manga' from OP09 Emperors in the New World, and one of the game's crown-jewel chase cards. Same OP09-118 number as the ~$30 base Roger, but it trades ~$4,000 raw and ~$6,900 PSA 10: the manga parallel is doing over 100× the base card.
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The Monkey D. Luffy Manga Rare — the comic-panel parallel from OP09 Emperors in the New World, the 'undisputed king of the regular manga rares.' Same OP09-119 number as the ~$11 base Luffy, but it trades ~$1,400 raw and ~$5,000 PSA 10: the manga treatment is doing ~100× the base card, on the game's most-collected character.
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The gold-stamped WINNER Luffy — the marquee of Store Tournament 2026 Vol. 2. It clears ~$100–200 raw versus the ~$10 no-stamp Participation twin: the stamp is doing ~10–15× of work, and Luffy demand is the engine.
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The pack's sleeper. An R-rarity Chopper in the first slot clears ~$65–150 raw — the #2 value after Luffy, and higher than most would guess for a support character.
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The WINNER Nami — a steady ~$65–80 raw. Strong, rising Nami demand plus the gold stamp keep it comfortably the pack's #3, well above the support cards.
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The WINNER Ace — ~$25–45 raw and trending up from ~$15 in May. Ace's exceptional character demand gives it a floor, but a same-number JP promo makes variant-matching essential.
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The WINNER Shanks — ~$28–30 raw. Emperor-tier character demand, but the card is firmly supply-capped in the middle of the pack.
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The WINNER Sabo — ~$25–30 raw, the pack's most affordable. The real story is variant confusion: 'Sabo P-105' is at least four different cards at wildly different prices.
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The Convention-Exclusive NON-FOIL King Luffy — the same chase art as the ~$1,000+ foil, minus the foil. PSA 10 clears ~$240–325: a real graded market, but the value gap to the foil sibling is all treatment.
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A common bulk promo today (~$5) — a clean Luffy-Leader print held cheaply, betting on upside if Luffy-leader nostalgia firms up.
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A first-set full-art SEC that's drifted to bulk (~$8 raw) — cheap, asymmetric upside on a popular Wano character. Not the serialized grail.
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A hard-to-pull regional-entry promo already clearing ~$350 raw weeks after release — low supply, pretty foil Alabasta art, surging Nami demand.
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The cheapest way into a Luffy design collectors have already validated at four and five figures — same iconic pose as the pricier Manga and Red Manga.
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One of OP13's marquee chase cards — the comic-panel Luffy clearing ~$1,850 raw with a deep, liquid graded market above it.
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The apex of the OP13-118 design ladder — the rarest Red Comic treatment, a five-figure grail (~$10,300 raw) the whole ladder is priced against.
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The English serialized Championship prize (/1,000), one of the most iconic serial-numbered One Piece cards. Its current fair value is anchored to real sold comps, not a guess. Against the winner-card scarcity law it sits ~52% below where its print run alone would place it — the market is not over-paying, and durable Shanks demand plus a genuine mid-2026 uptick support the floor.
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The serialized top-prize Ace (the 'For Asia' / regional serial, /2,500). Current fair value is anchored to real 2026 sold comps in the $2,000–$3,000 range for graded examples. It sits ~41% below the cohort scarcity line — not over-paid — with Ace's exceptional, durable collector demand underpinning the floor.
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The serialized 'Get Campaign' Nami (/1,200) — a five-figure grail. Current fair value is anchored to real 2026 sold comps (raw ~$14,000; sealed-with-certificate higher). It trades ~28% above the pure scarcity line — a modest, defensible Nami premium — rather than a mispricing. The wide forward band reflects a genuinely thin, volatile market.
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The serialized Luffy SEC prize (/2,500). Current fair value is anchored to real comps (~$13,800). This is the engine's first 'overvalued' read: even crediting a strong Luffy premium, it trades ~2.5× above what its print run + cohort peers justify. Not a sell signal — a caution that the price leans on demand, not scarcity, so it is more exposed if Luffy sentiment cools.
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Independent analysis of physical collectibles. USD. Model forecasts, not market quotes. Not financial advice.
