Published 2026-07-29 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$59–$403
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
An all-Gears (1→5) Luffy handed out only for competition/regional entry — event-gated supply of a design collectors chase for its own sake.
- Design: depicts every Luffy Gear form, Gear 1 through Gear 5, on one card — chased for the art itself.
- Distribution: given only for joining a competition / entering a regional — supply gated to attendance, not packs.
- Market: ~$450 raw NM on variant-matched eBay last-sold (real range $350–625), with a robust PSA 10 book above it (~$860, cluster $800–950).
- Scarcity trend: a fixed, event-gated population that only tightens as ONE PIECE DAY editions stack up.
- Founder holds this card (disclosed position, cost basis ~$5).
Biggest risk: The all-gears '24 is the priciest One Piece Day Luffy, but event promos can see supply bumps if Bandai re-issues similar cards, and the graded premium depends on PSA 10 demand holding. JP dealer asks run below EN/global eBay sold, so a JP-sourced copy is often the cheaper buy.
Sources: eBay last-sold (ST10-006, variant-matched, 2026-07-29) · SNKRDUNK (card 315324)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$420 from 6 sold comps ($388–$530); latest 2026-07-20.
- Liquidity ~6.0 sales/yr; falling regime.
Comparables: One Piece Day '25 (P-110 Luffy, ~$175 raw single) · One Piece Day '26 (P-161 Luffy, pre-lottery) · Other ONE PIECE DAY visitor promos
Forecast band
Bull
$496
Bear
$13
6–24mo range
$59–$403
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 58/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity7/10 ×3
ONE PIECE DAY'24 visitor-benefit — event-limited distribution.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
Special event artwork (11000-power showcase print).
- Collector demand7/10 ×2
Strong event-promo demand; PSA 10 clears ~$746.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions4/10 ×1.5
Event promo; distinct from the deck ST10-006 print.
- Estimated print availability6/10 ×1.5
Event-attendance-gated supply.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
ONE PIECE DAY — the franchise's flagship annual event.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
JP event distribution.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 7/10 | ×3 | ONE PIECE DAY'24 visitor-benefit — event-limited distribution. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | Special event artwork (11000-power showcase print). |
| Collector demand | 7/10 | ×2 | Strong event-promo demand; PSA 10 clears ~$746. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Event promo; distinct from the deck ST10-006 print. |
| Estimated print availability | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Event-attendance-gated supply. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | ONE PIECE DAY — the franchise's flagship annual event. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | JP event distribution. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |