Every call, dated and public — winners and losers. We never backdate and never delete.
The public ledger
40 calls on the record so far — each timestamped the day we publish, never edited, nothing deleted or backdated. The live ones are in Open calls on the homepage; this is the scorecard. See every call, winners and losers →
Calls on record
40
public & dated
Deleted · backdated
0 · 0
never, by policy
Founder-owned
19 / 40
disclosed on the call
Closed losses
0
none yet — they'll live here
How we handle a loss
No closed losses yet. When a call goes against us, it stays right here — the original dated thesis, plus a written post-mortem on what we missed. We never delete a miss. That's the deal, and it's the whole point.
A buy call from someone already holding the card is a conflict of interest — most accounts hide it. We label every founder position with its purchase date and price, so you can weigh our incentive before you weigh our logic. Disclosure isn't a flex; it's the price of being believed.
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OP13-119 · OP13
The manga-panel (コミパラ) SEC-SP Ace — the middle brother of the OP13 '3 Brothers' chase set (OP13-118 Luffy / OP13-119 Ace / OP13-120 Sabo), the sibling to the SEC-P Luffy the founder holds. Ace is one of the most emotionally-collected characters in the fandom. JP-anchored per SNKRDUNK: raw NM sold ¥178,000 (~$1,187) on 2026-07-25, on a steep year-long uptrend (¥40k → ¥250k+). PSA 10 clears ~¥250,000 (~$1,670). TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base SEC, the ~$59 WANTED-poster SEC-SP, the SEC-P parallel, or the red-manga SEC-RSP (~¥845,000). Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP13-120 · OP13
The manga-panel (コミパラ) SEC-SP Sabo — the third brother of the OP13 '3 Brothers' chase set, completing the trio with the founder's OP13-118 Luffy and the OP13-119 Ace. JP-anchored per SNKRDUNK: raw NM sold ¥110,000 (~$733) on 2026-07-26, on a steep year-long uptrend (¥30k → ¥180k+). PSA 10 clears ~¥190,000 (~$1,267). The cheapest entry of the three brothers, so the accessible leg of a set collectors chase together. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base SEC, the ~$80 WANTED-poster SEC-SP, the SEC-P parallel, or the red-manga SEC-RSP (~¥870,000). Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
EB03 · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SP)
The SR-SPC ('Special') ornate art-nouveau Boa Hancock from EB03 Heroines Edition — the set's #1 chase pull, on one of the most-collected characters in the game. JP-anchored per the clean SNKRDUNK market: raw NM (cond. A) trades a median ¥182,999 (~$1,220), and the SNKRDUNK history is a steep year-long uptrend with the latest sale ¥235,000 (~$1,567). Grading-EV to PSA 10 (~¥265,000 / ~$1,770) adds upside. TRAP serial: the common EB03-026 SR (~¥1,000 / $7) and the SR-P parallel share the number — don't confuse them. (This corrects an earlier read that anchored to cheaper Western eBay 'SP' listings; the JP SR-SPC trades meaningfully higher.) Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
EB03 · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SR-SPC)
The SR-SPC 'Special' alt-art Nami from EB03 Heroines Edition — the ornate art-nouveau chase design (NOT the common SR ~$7 or the SR-P parallel ~$29 that share the number). Anchored to the JAPANESE market (SNKRDUNK + eBay JP), which is where this card trades cleanest: the raw NM sold ¥120,000 (~$800) on 2026-07-22, and the SNKRDUNK price history is a clear year-long uptrend (¥30k → ¥150k+). Surging Nami demand + a rising JP trend is the buy case; grading-EV to PSA 10 (~$930-1,030) adds upside. English SP trades at a further premium. Modern-set volatility is the risk. Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
EB03 · Extra Booster: Heroines Edition (SR-SPC)
The SR-SPC ('Special') ornate art-nouveau Nico Robin from EB03 Heroines Edition — the third of the set's chase trio (with Boa 026 and Nami 053). JP-anchored per the clean SNKRDUNK market: raw NM (cond. A) median ¥82,000 (~$547), and the SNKRDUNK history is a clear year-long uptrend. Grading-EV to PSA 10 (~¥135,000 / ~$900) adds upside. TRAP serial: the common EB03-055 SR (~¥1,000 / $7) and the SR-P parallel share the number — don't confuse them. Surging Robin demand on a rising JP trend is the buy case. Modern-set volatility is the risk. Founder does not hold (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP16 · The Time of Battle (SR-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) SR-SP Sakazuki — the #1 chase of OP16 'The Time of Battle' and the headline of the set's 3-Admirals manga trio (with Kuzan 063 and Borsalino 073). JP-anchored per SNKRDUNK: raw NM (cond. A) sold a median ¥420,000 (~$2,800), PSA 10 clears ~¥480,000–555,000 (~$3,200–3,700). The raw sits close to graded — a red-hot, thinly-listed new-set chase. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base SR or the R-P parallel that share the number. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP16 · The Time of Battle (R-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) R-SP Kuzan — the second Admiral of the OP16 3-Admirals manga chase (with Sakazuki 065 and Borsalino 073). JP-anchored per SNKRDUNK: raw NM (cond. A) sold ¥320,000 (~$2,133), PSA 10 clears ~¥440,000–500,000 (~$2,900–3,300). A hot, thinly-listed new-set chase; the cheapest raw of the three Admirals. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base R or the R-P parallel that share the number. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP16 · The Time of Battle (R-SP ComiPara)
The manga-panel (コミパラ / ComiPara) R-SP Borsalino — the third Admiral of the OP16 3-Admirals manga chase (completing Sakazuki 065 + Kuzan 063). JP-anchored per SNKRDUNK: raw NM (cond. A) sold a median ¥328,000 (~$2,187), PSA 10 clears ~¥460,000–550,000 (~$3,100–3,700). A hot, thinly-listed new-set chase. TRAP serial: NOT the ~$7 base R or the R-P parallel that share the number. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · ONE PIECE DAY'25 Premium Card Collection
The Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute Luffy from ONE PIECE DAY'25 — the franchise's most-collected character on a flagship-event showcase print, in a deep and liquid market. But it was reprinted once (Oct/Nov '25), so the lottery-scarce case is capped, and the raw has already re-rated well off its launch floor. Priced on recent raw single sold comps (shown above); the grading-EV gap to PSA 10 is the main remaining lever. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP07-038 · 500 Years in the Future
The OP07-038 full-art Boa Hancock alt-art Leader — a scarce, in-demand foil of one of the most-collected characters in the game, on a deep graded market. The bet: rising Boa demand (new product keeps her top-of-mind) plus fixed OP07 alt-art supply re-rates it toward the target above. Priced RAW here (the current raw sold median is shown above); PSA 10 copies trade separately and higher. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP07-038 · 500 Years in the Future
The OP07-038 parallel Leader — the foil version of the base Boa portrait, a tier below the full-art alt-art but well above the ~$1 base, priced on real raw sold comps (shown above); PSA 10 trades higher. Same rising-Boa-demand thesis as the alt-art, toward the target. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP05-119 · Awakening of the New Era
The 'GEAR' alternate art — the scarce OP05-119 parallel with the purple 'GEAR' manga treatment, not the cheap base SEC it shares a number with. Priced on English raw sold comps (shown above), on thin listing supply. The bet: a scarce parallel of the game's most-collected character, constantly mis-priced against its base twin, re-rates toward the target as the disambiguation sticks. PSA 10 copies trade higher; JP/Chinese prints trade lower. Founder holds this card raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP05-119 · Awakening of the New Era
The base Gear 5 SEC — the iconic colored Gear 5 everyone pictures, and the cheapest way into the OP05-119 serial at ~$15 raw. It's cheap because it was heavily printed and reprinted in PRB-01, not because it's unwanted. The bet: as the only affordable entry to a number whose parallels run $350–$33,000, the base absorbs demand from collectors priced out of the parallels and re-rates toward $80. Founder holds this card raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
ST13-003 · ST13
The Borussia Dortmund × One Piece Matchday Luffy — a football-kit alt-art sharing the ST13-003 serial with the ~$15 Ultra Deck base Leader, but trading ~$808 raw and four figures in PSA 10. The bet: a one-off cross-fandom collab (football + anime) on fixed, event-only, EN/Europe-exclusive supply keeps climbing, while Google and the price apps keep mis-pricing it by blending it with the $15 base. Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
ST13-003 · ST13
The gold-text ST13-003 — the Premium Card Collection parallel, told apart from the ~$15 base by GOLD name text (the base is silver). Never sold in packs: it came only inside a $15 six-card collection Bandai sold at its own events (BCG Fest 24-25 World Tour, plus the Championship 2024 Finals in North America and Europe). US sold has firmed from ~$76 in May to the level shown above. The edge: a live ~3× JP/US regional gap (SNKRDUNK JP asks ~$50 vs US sold much higher) on the identical card, on a print run that ended with the events. Founder holds this card raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Winner Pack 2026 Vol. 2 · English
The gold-stamped WINNER Luffy from Store Tournament 2026 Vol. 2. It clears well above the ~$10 no-stamp Participation twin (the stamp is worth ~10–15×) — priced on real raw sold comps (shown above), and the demand behind it is the game's most-collected character. The bet is simple: WINNER cards keep appreciating, and a Luffy WINNER is the one most likely to. Yes, the prize line is recurring (new Winner Packs each season), but Luffy demand has consistently outrun that supply. Founder holds raw (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · 2nd Anniversary · English
The Japanese Weekly Shonen Jump #36-37 FOIL of the “crowned King” Luffy — no event stamp, just the magazine foil print, the accessible chase of the P-043 family. HONEST UPDATE (2026-07-30): our original 2026-07-12 BUY (High conviction, $350 target) has NOT worked — the raw has kept softening, from spring ~$200–240 down to ~$72 now (real sold comps shown above), below the ~$140 line we ourselves set as the invalidation. So we're downgrading to a low-conviction HOLD: fairly priced at the current raw, with PSA 10 (~$280–500) the only real headroom for anyone willing to grade. Not a chase at these levels.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · 2nd Anniversary · English
The rare Convention-Exclusive FOIL — the grail of the King-Luffy family. It trades almost entirely graded as PSA 10, off a tight band of recent foil sold comps from high-rep sellers (the exact sales and median are shown above). Priced in PSA 10 terms because raw copies almost never surface — a genuinely thin, high-end market where scarcity, not hype, sets the floor.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
ST21 · Official Event Top Prize · Japanese
Own it raw, don't chase it graded. The tell isn't the 36,828 PSA 10 population — it's that 80%+ of graded copies come back PSA 10: the top grade is the default outcome, not an achievement, so it carries no real scarcity. That turns the ~$100 raw → PSA 10 gap (shown above) into an open arbitrage — grade for ~$20, expect a 10 four times in five — which pumps ever more PSA 10s into supply. Released only Nov 2025, the raw pool is nowhere near drained, and Japan already clears PSA 10 at ~$290 (SNKRDUNK), keeping a lid on the US premium (which has softened — see comps above). Its fixed magazine print gives it a floor (dead money, not a falling knife), but there is no appreciation case here. Avoid the PSA 10 as an investment; the ~$100 raw is a fine collectible. Founder holds raw — disclosed; this call is on the graded premium, not the cheap raw.
Why we'd avoid
OP13-118 · OP13
The OP13 SEC-P alt-art Luffy shares its pose and composition with the two marquee chases of the set — the Comic 'manga' (SEC-SP) and Red Comic 'red manga' (SEC-RSP), both of which have run up exponentially into the set's grails. As those siblings cement their status, the SEC-P inherits their design relevance as the accessible entry point, on top of OP13's expensive pack-cost floor. Priced on recent raw sold comps (shown above); founder holds from ~$10 (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP13-118 · OP13
The base secret-rare Luffy of Carrying On His Will — the accessible floor beneath the set's chase parallels (the SEC-P alt-art, the ~$1,733 manga SEC-SP and the ~$9,663 red-manga SEC-RSP). OP13's steep pack/case cost gives even the base SEC a real cost-to-obtain, and the whole design's premium tows it. Founder holds from ~$0.30, now ~$15.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Promotion Pack EX Vol.4
A 1-of-12 regional-pull promo Nami (Promotion Pack EX Vol.4 'Matching Battle') on a firm EB03 base. Founder holds from ~$350 (disclosed); real sold comps put the promo single BELOW that entry today — an honest underwater mark, shown above. The bet for recovery toward the target is the 1-of-12 scarcity plus surging Nami demand. Not the ~$2 Heroines Edition base R that shares the number.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · ONE PIECE DAY'24
An all-Gears design Luffy from ONE PIECE DAY'24 — competition-only, event-gated supply. The visitor-benefit distribution caps the population and the all-Gears art drives collector demand. Priced on recent raw sold comps (shown above); PSA 10 copies trade far higher. Founder holds from ~$50 (disclosed).
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Promotion Pack Vol.4
A clean Leader print of the franchise's most-collected character, held cheaply as an underdog bet: a bulk-priced entry with limited downside and room to appreciate if Luffy-leader demand or early-promo nostalgia firms up. High print keeps supply deep — the main cap on upside. Founder holds from ~$5, now ~$15.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Monsters Official Guidebook
A scarce guidebook-box promo of Ryuma — a cult-favourite swordsman with crossover appeal to Zoro collectors. Tight one-off distribution keeps supply thin: the plain raw sits at the liquid auction clears shown above, with graded PSA 10s clearing many multiples higher — a large grading-EV gap. Founder holds from a bulk entry; the dated target is the first benchmark. Honest caveat: a thin, noisy market — BIN and Oda-stamped copies ask well above the auction clears.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP05-119 · Awakening of the New Era
The base secret-rare Luffy from Awakening of the New Era — a marquee set whose comic-parallel siblings (SEC-P ~$118, SEC-SP ~$997) tow the base up. Cheap raw entry with a rising floor as the parallels climb. Founder holds from ~$1.50, now ~$10.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP09 · Emperors in the New World
The base secret-rare Luffy from Emperors in the New World, sitting under a ~$866 comic parallel (SEC-SP). A cheap raw entry on the franchise's flagship character with a floor that rises as the parallel and set demand hold. Founder holds from ~$0.50, now ~$7.50.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of OP16-095
UPDATED 2026-07-30 (sold-comp re-grade). Identity: the bowling alt-art of the existing OP16-095 Luffy — same serial, exclusive Round1 event art, NOT a new original card. Our July-2 pre-launch call (buy ~$20 arcade cost) landed on the right side but undershot the magnitude: with only ~9,000 packs across 10 designs and Luffy the runaway chase, the English print now clears the price shown above on real sold comps (it did NOT breathe down — English demand held). Marquee character, scarcest design, and pack-searchers concentrate demand on the single. Still a BUY. The Japanese print trades separately and much lower.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of PRB02-006
UPDATED 2026-07-30 (sold-comp re-grade, English print). The baseball alt-art of the existing PRB02-006 Zoro — same serial, exclusive Round1 art. A sports crossover that travels beyond core collectors, and one of the fan-favorite designs of the set. Our July-2 call undershot the magnitude: the English print cleared far above the old estimate on real sold comps (shown above). Still a BUY. The Japanese print trades separately and much lower.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of OP15-047
UPDATED 2026-07-30 (sold-comp re-grade, English print). The soccer alt-art of the existing OP15-047 Sanji — same serial, exclusive Round1 art. The most dynamic design in the set (flaming bicycle-kick) and a clean fan-favorite. English sold comps sit at the price shown above (it has softened from its launch peak). Still a BUY toward the target. The Japanese print trades separately and lower.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Round1 × One Piece · alt-art of ST29-008
UPDATED 2026-07-30 (sold-comp re-grade, English print). The Round1 alt-art of the existing ST29-008 Nami — same serial, exclusive Round1 art. Nami is a perennial fan-favorite and one of the most-collected Straw Hats, which underpins collab demand. Our July-2 call badly undershot: the English print is one of the strongest singles of the set on real sold comps (shown above). Still a BUY. The Japanese print trades separately and lower.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Musée Grévin Paris · Exclusive Promo
Forward call, comp-anchored — not held. The Musée Grévin Paris exclusive: custom Luffy Leader art, given free to the first 50,000 museum visitors from 26 June, alongside the permanent One Piece exhibit. The read leaned on a direct precedent — the College Basketball US Voyage Luffy (P-055), a free Western-event promo at ~2× the supply that cleared ~$450–800. Grévin is scarcer (50k) with a premium museum-collab narrative, and real raw sold comps (shown above) have already run PAST our original $700 read — target reset above. Honest caveats: a thin French/EU market with a wide spread, and the Ichiban Kuji OP13-001 Luffy (~$40–180) is a different card on the same number.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP08 · Two Legends
The OP-08 “Two Legends” Treasure Rare Luffy (card no. OP07-109) — an English-only, roughly one-per-case alt-art chase. Treasure Rares are structurally scarce: one per set, English/international-only (Japan gets God Packs instead), with a small fixed population. Founder has held since ~$150 (disclosed); priced on real raw sold comps (shown above), with room to the target. The TR ceiling is high — regional CN/FR Treasure Rares already run into the thousands, and PSA 10 copies here already clear four figures. Honest caveat: the raw TR market is thin and auction-driven, so the sold median swings.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP06 · Wings of the Captain
Forward call, not held. The OP-06 “Wings of the Captain” Treasure Rare Nami (ST01-007 alt-art) — the first Treasure Rare ever printed, which gives it a “genesis” collector story on top of the standard TR scarcity (English-only, 1 per set, ~1 per case). Priced on real raw sold comps (shown above); we see room to the target on durable Nami / Straw Hat demand and the high TR ceiling (PSA 10 already clears $550–770). Conviction is Medium: a forward call on a thin, auction-driven raw market.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
OP13
A grading-EV arbitrage, not a hype-chase. The raw SR trades around $8 while PSA 10 copies clear ~$2,000 — a ~250× graded-to-raw ratio when the norm is at most ~10×. That gap means the raw is structurally underpriced as a grading vehicle: buy raw cheap and the grading EV is enormous, so we see room for the raw to re-rate toward $30 (still only ~67×) as graders act on it. Buy the RAW — not the hyped PSA 10. Consistency note: we earlier flagged the thin-volume raw spike as possibly manufactured (see Market Watch); this call rests on the deeper graded-market dislocation, not the thin raw comps, and conviction is Low because both markets are thin. Founder has held since January at ~$0.50 (pre-spike) — disclosed.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
WSJ55 · Weekly Shonen Jump 55th Anniversary · Japan
The definitive Gear 5 “awakening” chase art — the image collectors actually want — on a one-time Weekly Shonen Jump 55th Anniversary subscriber promo carrying the official Jump 55th stamp (authentic Jump-anniversary provenance is a core collectibility driver). Supply is fixed (campaign over, no reprints) and Japan-gated, so it reads scarcer abroad than its raw print count. Founder has held the raw since January; the raw comp has since re-rated well above the entry (real sold sales shown above), and graded PSA 10 copies list at multiples of that with graded sales still thin — a large grading-EV gap on a cheap raw. Buy the RAW near comp, not the 4–5× local RM asks. Honest caveat: the market is thin, so this is a high-conviction call on the collectible thesis (iconic art + capped, gated supply), not on deep liquidity — disclosed.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
ST21 · Official Event Top Prize · Japanese
Official Event Top-Prize Luffy — handed out only to top finishers, so the print run is a rounding error next to any retail card. Founder has held since January (entry, current price and multiple are shown above, kept current from the sold-comp ledger). PSA 10 comps cooled from a May–June spike but the position is well in the money. The upward-arrow design language Bandai reserves for tournament, event and promo cards is the same tell that has historically preceded low print runs and durable demand.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
EB02-010 · Anime 25th Collection
Alt-art Luffy Leader from the Official Playmat Limited Edition vol.5 promo — distributed mainly through competitions and events, so supply is capped. Founder entered around $250 on 20 June; the card-only single now clears above that on real sold comps (shown above), and the call is a buy toward the target as the event-only print and a top-tier Luffy alt-art keep demand firm.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · 2nd Anniversary · English
English 2nd-Anniversary stamped Luffy — the “crowned King” art. The English print was event-only (exhibitions & competitions), so it's far scarcer than the Japanese copies, and English demand runs higher. Raw clears at the real sold comps shown above; founder has held since January and sees room toward the dated target as English demand firms.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
Promo · Promo (V.2)
Winner-stamped promo — a scarce tournament-prize print that's hard to replace. Founder bought NM at ~$50 in January (verified) and now rates it a buy: the winner stamp caps supply and underpins durable collector demand.
Why this moves
Affiliate · disclosed
