Published 2026-07-17 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$450–$2,149
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The BVB × One Piece Matchday Luffy — a Borussia Dortmund football-kit alt-art under the same ST13-003 number as the ~$15 base Leader. It clears ~$865 raw / ~$1,425 PSA 10: the collab art is doing ~50× of work over the base card, on cross-fandom demand and event-only supply.
- Character × crossover: Luffy — the game's demand anchor — in a one-off Borussia Dortmund kit. Football + anime demand stacked on one card.
- The trap number: same serial as the $15 Ultra Deck base Leader. Google's AI answer blends the variants and mis-prices this in both directions — matching the exact art is the whole game.
- Liquidity: not thin — 72 SNKRDUNK sellers and steady eBay velocity at four figures. Raw sold ~$515–1,260 (median ~$865); PSA 10 ~$1,175–1,550 (median ~$1,425).
- Supply: event-only, EN/Europe-exclusive (no JP print), out of print with no reprint announced — a fixed population, unlike recurring winner promos.
- Founder does not hold this card; the BUY (target $2,000 raw / $3,000 PSA 10) is a conviction call on cross-fandom demand against fixed supply — disclosed on the card's Position.
Biggest risk: This is a collaboration promo, and crossover hype can cool once the matchday moment passes — the four-figure raw floor is young. Grading is a real gamble: PSA 9s trade below raw median, so the raw→PSA 10 spread only pays on a gem. Anchor to confirmed variant-matched sold prices, not asks — SNKRDUNK's lowest ask sits above eBay's sold median.
Sources: eBay sold listings (BVB × One Piece Matchday ST13-003, raw + PSA 10, Jul 2026) · SNKRDUNK lowest ask (72 sellers)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$865 from 6 sold comps ($630–$867); latest 2026-07-17.
- Liquidity ~6.0 sales/yr; rising regime.
Comparables: ST13-003 base Leader (~$15) · ST13-003 gold-text Leader Collection (~$187) · P-043 Convention foil Luffy (graded-only grail)
Forecast band
Bull
$2,651
Bear
$450
6–24mo range
$450–$2,149
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 74/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character and demand anchor.
- Comparable Winner cards5/10 ×3
No comparable-set model; valued on its own liquid variant-matched comps (NO_MODEL).
- Tournament exclusivity8/10 ×3
Distributed only around the BVB × One Piece matchday event in Germany/Europe — a one-off collaboration, not a recurring line.
- Artwork uniqueness10/10 ×2.5
Unique Borussia Dortmund football-kit alt-art — a crossover treatment that exists on no other One Piece card.
- Collector demand9/10 ×2
Cross-fandom demand (football + anime); 72 SNKRDUNK sellers and steady eBay velocity at four-figure levels.
- Winner-card history5/10 ×2
Not a winner-stamp print; collab-promo scarcity behaves differently — one event, no re-issue announced.
- Existing versions3/10 ×1.5
Shares serial ST13-003 with the ~$15 base Leader, the manga parallel, the gold-text Leader Collection and tournament promos — heavy same-number confusion, but this art is unmistakable.
- Estimated print availability8/10 ×1.5
Event-only, out of print, no reprint announced — supply is fixed and does not replenish.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
Not a retail set card, but a landmark first football-club crossover for the franchise.
- Regional availability7/10 ×1
EN/Europe-exclusive (no JP CDN entry) — regionally scarce, which concentrates demand.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character and demand anchor. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 5/10 | ×3 | No comparable-set model; valued on its own liquid variant-matched comps (NO_MODEL). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 8/10 | ×3 | Distributed only around the BVB × One Piece matchday event in Germany/Europe — a one-off collaboration, not a recurring line. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 10/10 | ×2.5 | Unique Borussia Dortmund football-kit alt-art — a crossover treatment that exists on no other One Piece card. |
| Collector demand | 9/10 | ×2 | Cross-fandom demand (football + anime); 72 SNKRDUNK sellers and steady eBay velocity at four-figure levels. |
| Winner-card history | 5/10 | ×2 | Not a winner-stamp print; collab-promo scarcity behaves differently — one event, no re-issue announced. |
| Existing versions | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Shares serial ST13-003 with the ~$15 base Leader, the manga parallel, the gold-text Leader Collection and tournament promos — heavy same-number confusion, but this art is unmistakable. |
| Estimated print availability | 8/10 | ×1.5 | Event-only, out of print, no reprint announced — supply is fixed and does not replenish. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Not a retail set card, but a landmark first football-club crossover for the franchise. |
| Regional availability | 7/10 | ×1 | EN/Europe-exclusive (no JP CDN entry) — regionally scarce, which concentrates demand. |
Competitive factors — 20/100
- Tournament playability2/10 ×1
A playable Leader on paper, but this promo is collected, not sleeved.
- Meta relevance2/10 ×1
Value is collector/crossover-scarcity driven, not competitive-meta driven.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 2/10 | ×1 | A playable Leader on paper, but this promo is collected, not sleeved. |
| Meta relevance | 2/10 | ×1 | Value is collector/crossover-scarcity driven, not competitive-meta driven. |