Published 2026-07-12 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (low conviction)
$12–$26
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The WINNER Sabo — ~$25–30 raw, the pack's most affordable. The real story is variant confusion: 'Sabo P-105' is at least four different cards at wildly different prices.
- Value: ~$15–35 raw on eBay sold, typically ~$27 — the lowest in the pack.
- Variant minefield: 'P-105' also = the SP 'Adventure on Kami's Island' (OP15-EB04) at ~$100–125 raw, a Chinese Championship P-105, and a $1.49 JP promo.
- Match the art: only the gold WINNER-stamp full-art is this card — the number alone is meaningless.
- Cap: recurring prize line + lowest pull-demand in the pack.
Biggest risk: The dominant risk is buying the wrong 'P-105' — the SP Kami's Island card is ~4× the price. Beyond that, thin demand and recurring supply cap the winner-stamp version. Confidence is Low by design.
Sources: eBay sold listings (P-105 Winner Pack 2026 Vol. 2, raw NM)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$28 from 5 sold comps ($25–$30); latest 2026-07-02.
- Liquidity ~5.0 sales/yr; falling regime.
Comparables: Sabo SP P-105 'Kami's Island' (different card, ~$100–125) · P-104 Shanks WINNER · P-105 Participation (no stamp)
Forecast band
Bull
$32
Bear
$12
6–24mo range
$12–$26
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 57/100
- Character popularity6/10 ×3
Sabo — a strong side character, but the lowest pull-demand in this pack.
- Comparable Winner cards6/10 ×3
Part of the 6-card Winner Pack cohort; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL).
- Tournament exclusivity7/10 ×3
Top-finisher prize; scarcer than the Participation twin, but recurring.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
Premium full-art gold WINNER-stamp treatment.
- Collector demand4/10 ×2
Lowest in the pack — clears ~$25–30 raw.
- Winner-card history6/10 ×2
Winner-stamp promos hold a premium; re-issued each season.
- Existing versions3/10 ×1.5
Un-stamped Participation twin + a far pricier SP 'Kami's Island' P-105 + JP/Chinese P-105 — severe variant confusion.
- Estimated print availability5/10 ×1.5
Prize-distributed and recurring.
- Set importance4/10 ×1.5
Store Tournament prize pack.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
English Winner Pack (EN).
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 6/10 | ×3 | Sabo — a strong side character, but the lowest pull-demand in this pack. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 6/10 | ×3 | Part of the 6-card Winner Pack cohort; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 7/10 | ×3 | Top-finisher prize; scarcer than the Participation twin, but recurring. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | Premium full-art gold WINNER-stamp treatment. |
| Collector demand | 4/10 | ×2 | Lowest in the pack — clears ~$25–30 raw. |
| Winner-card history | 6/10 | ×2 | Winner-stamp promos hold a premium; re-issued each season. |
| Existing versions | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Un-stamped Participation twin + a far pricier SP 'Kami's Island' P-105 + JP/Chinese P-105 — severe variant confusion. |
| Estimated print availability | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Prize-distributed and recurring. |
| Set importance | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Store Tournament prize pack. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | English Winner Pack (EN). |
Competitive factors — 20/100
- Tournament playability2/10 ×1
Collected as a prize foil, not sleeved.
- Meta relevance2/10 ×1
Minimal meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 2/10 | ×1 | Collected as a prize foil, not sleeved. |
| Meta relevance | 2/10 | ×1 | Minimal meta relevance. |