Published 2026-07-12 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (medium conviction)
$20–$73
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The WINNER Shanks — ~$28–30 raw. Emperor-tier character demand, but the card is firmly supply-capped in the middle of the pack.
- Character: Shanks — an Emperor and a top-collected name.
- Value: ~$25–45 raw on eBay sold, clustering ~$28–30.
- Stamp premium: WINNER-stamp scarcity over the ~$10 un-stamped Participation twin.
- Cap: recurring prize line — despite the character, supply keeps the price grounded.
Biggest risk: Character prestige hasn't translated into a high clear — recurring supply and the mid-pack demand keep it near ~$30. Anchor to confirmed sold comps.
Sources: eBay sold listings (P-104 Winner Pack 2026 Vol. 2, raw NM)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$30 from 5 sold comps ($28–$33); latest 2026-07-07.
- Liquidity ~5.0 sales/yr; rising regime.
Comparables: P-103 Ace WINNER · P-106 Luffy WINNER · P-104 Participation (no stamp)
Forecast band
Bull
$90
Bear
$20
6–24mo range
$20–$73
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 63/100
- Character popularity9/10 ×3
Shanks (Emperor) — among the most-collected characters.
- Comparable Winner cards6/10 ×3
Part of the 6-card Winner Pack cohort; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL).
- Tournament exclusivity7/10 ×3
Top-finisher prize; scarcer than the Participation twin, but recurring.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
Premium full-art gold WINNER-stamp treatment (8-cost 10000 body).
- Collector demand5/10 ×2
Character demand high, but the card clears only ~$28–30 — supply-capped.
- Winner-card history6/10 ×2
Winner-stamp promos hold a premium; re-issued each season.
- Existing versions4/10 ×1.5
Un-stamped Participation twin exists — high substitution.
- Estimated print availability5/10 ×1.5
Prize-distributed and recurring.
- Set importance4/10 ×1.5
Store Tournament prize pack.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
English Winner Pack (EN).
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 9/10 | ×3 | Shanks (Emperor) — among the most-collected characters. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 6/10 | ×3 | Part of the 6-card Winner Pack cohort; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 7/10 | ×3 | Top-finisher prize; scarcer than the Participation twin, but recurring. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | Premium full-art gold WINNER-stamp treatment (8-cost 10000 body). |
| Collector demand | 5/10 | ×2 | Character demand high, but the card clears only ~$28–30 — supply-capped. |
| Winner-card history | 6/10 | ×2 | Winner-stamp promos hold a premium; re-issued each season. |
| Existing versions | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Un-stamped Participation twin exists — high substitution. |
| Estimated print availability | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Prize-distributed and recurring. |
| Set importance | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Store Tournament prize pack. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | English Winner Pack (EN). |
Competitive factors — 20/100
- Tournament playability2/10 ×1
Collected as a prize foil, not sleeved.
- Meta relevance2/10 ×1
Minimal meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 2/10 | ×1 | Collected as a prize foil, not sleeved. |
| Meta relevance | 2/10 | ×1 | Minimal meta relevance. |