Published 2026-07-02 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (low conviction)
$2,050–$5,779
Cohort read: fair — ~41% below the scarcity line — priced in line with, to slightly under, its peers
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The serialized top-prize Ace (the 'For Asia' / regional serial, /2,500). Current fair value is anchored to real 2026 sold comps in the $2,000–$3,000 range for graded examples. It sits ~41% below the cohort scarcity line — not over-paid — with Ace's exceptional, durable collector demand underpinning the floor.
Biggest risk: Thin high-end market; a Secret-Rare reprint or a wider serialized run is the main downside.
Sources: eBay sold listings (2026) · PriceCharting (OP07-119 top prize) · SNKRDUNK serial-grails guide
Evidence & comparables
- eBay-sold 2026: serialized 'Top Prize / Asia' PSA 8 $2,056–$2,855; /1000 PSA 9 $5,200.
- Base SEC (non-serial) trades $2–$6 raw — a ~1,000× variant gap, so identity matters.
- Cohort scarcity model: fair (−41% vs peers).
Comparables: Shanks OP01-120 · Yamato EB02-006 · Zoro OP12-020 (serialized peers)
Forecast band
Bull
$7,159
Bear
$2,050
6–24mo range
$2,050–$5,779
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
- Price re-rates toward the cohort scarcity value (currently ~41% below peers)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 80/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Ace — among the most emotionally-resonant, collected characters.
- Comparable Winner cards7/10 ×3
8-card winner cohort with corroborated anchors (r²≈0.51 scarcity fit).
- Tournament exclusivity10/10 ×3
Serial-numbered top-cut / championship prize — a tiny fixed population.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
Premium serialized foil treatment.
- Collector demand10/10 ×2
Exceptional, durable demand.
- Winner-card history8/10 ×2
Serialized prize cards have historically held large premiums.
- Existing versions6/10 ×1.5
The serial print is distinct from the base / SP alt-art versions.
- Estimated print availability8/10 ×1.5
Serial /2,500 — a tiny fraction of a base print's 50k–100k population.
- Set importance4/10 ×1.5
Prize/campaign distribution — not a flagship retail set.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
Region-gated — a minor scarcity contributor (partly overlaps print scarcity).
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Ace — among the most emotionally-resonant, collected characters. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 7/10 | ×3 | 8-card winner cohort with corroborated anchors (r²≈0.51 scarcity fit). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 10/10 | ×3 | Serial-numbered top-cut / championship prize — a tiny fixed population. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | Premium serialized foil treatment. |
| Collector demand | 10/10 | ×2 | Exceptional, durable demand. |
| Winner-card history | 8/10 | ×2 | Serialized prize cards have historically held large premiums. |
| Existing versions | 6/10 | ×1.5 | The serial print is distinct from the base / SP alt-art versions. |
| Estimated print availability | 8/10 | ×1.5 | Serial /2,500 — a tiny fraction of a base print's 50k–100k population. |
| Set importance | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Prize/campaign distribution — not a flagship retail set. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | Region-gated — a minor scarcity contributor (partly overlaps print scarcity). |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Not competitively played — a collectible, not a deck card (no evidence of play).
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance — value is scarcity/collector-driven, not play-driven.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Not competitively played — a collectible, not a deck card (no evidence of play). |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance — value is scarcity/collector-driven, not play-driven. |