Published 2026-07-12 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (low conviction)
$150–$315
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The Convention-Exclusive NON-FOIL King Luffy — the same chase art as the ~$1,000+ foil, minus the foil. PSA 10 clears ~$240–325: a real graded market, but the value gap to the foil sibling is all treatment.
- Art: the “crowned King” Luffy — one of the most-hunted promo designs.
- Value: PSA 10 ~$240–325 on eBay sold; trades graded, not raw.
- The foil gap: the convention FOIL of the same card clears ~$1,050–1,500 — the treatment is the whole premium.
- Variant trap: four different “P-043” cards share this number — match the exact print (stamp/foil/convention).
Biggest risk: Thin graded market and severe same-number variant confusion (2nd-anniv stamp / WSJ foil / convention foil all trade as “P-043” at very different prices). Anchor to variant-matched PSA 10 sold comps only. Base-art image is a placeholder until a variant-correct photo lands.
Sources: eBay sold listings (P-043 Convention Exclusive, PSA 10)
Evidence & comparables
- PSA10 anchor ~$322 from 3 sold comps ($243–$325); latest 2026-07-10.
- Liquidity ~3.0 sales/yr; falling regime.
Comparables: P-043 Convention FOIL (~$1,050–1,500 PSA 10) · P-043 WSJ foil · P-043 2nd-Anniv stamped
Forecast band
Bull
$385
Bear
$150
6–24mo range
$150–$315
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 54/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character; the “crowned King” art is a chase moment.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL).
- Tournament exclusivity6/10 ×3
Convention-exclusive distribution — limited, but the non-foil is the more common of the two convention prints.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
The premium “crowned King” King-Luffy art.
- Collector demand7/10 ×2
Steady graded demand; PSA 10 ~$240–325.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions3/10 ×1.5
Same number as the 2nd-anniv stamp, the WSJ foil, and the convention FOIL — heavy variant confusion.
- Estimated print availability5/10 ×1.5
Convention-limited, but more available than the foil sibling.
- Set importance4/10 ×1.5
Convention promo — not a retail set.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
English convention exclusive.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character; the “crowned King” art is a chase moment. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on its own comps (NO_MODEL). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 6/10 | ×3 | Convention-exclusive distribution — limited, but the non-foil is the more common of the two convention prints. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | The premium “crowned King” King-Luffy art. |
| Collector demand | 7/10 | ×2 | Steady graded demand; PSA 10 ~$240–325. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Same number as the 2nd-anniv stamp, the WSJ foil, and the convention FOIL — heavy variant confusion. |
| Estimated print availability | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Convention-limited, but more available than the foil sibling. |
| Set importance | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Convention promo — not a retail set. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | English convention exclusive. |
Competitive factors — 15/100
- Tournament playability2/10 ×1
Collected, not sleeved.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 2/10 | ×1 | Collected, not sleeved. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |