Published 2026-07-03 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$109–$599
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
A hard-to-pull regional-entry promo already clearing ~$350 raw weeks after release — low supply, pretty foil Alabasta art, surging Nami demand.
- Scarcity: 1 of 12 possible cards, regional-entry only — a low Nami hit rate (anecdotally <10 of ~100 entrants).
- Demand: top-tier heroine riding a documented Nami surge; clears ~$350 raw within weeks of its May 2026 release.
- Design: genuinely pretty foil Arabasta-theme art — collector appeal beyond the character.
- Floor: EB03 cards carry high base prices, so this sits on a firm floor.
- Catalyst: no graded population yet — a future PSA 10 pop could re-rate it.
- Founder holds this card (pulled at a regional; disclosed position).
Biggest risk: A young, thin market — ~$350 rests on a short trading history and a demand wave that could cool. Promo reprints or a broader Nami-hype reversal are the main downside; the wide raw ask spread ($342–429) reflects genuine price discovery still in progress.
Sources: SNKRDUNK (EB03-006 Promotion Pack EX Vol.4, card 819283)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$354 from 4 sold comps ($354–$385); latest 2026-07-03.
- Liquidity ~4.0 sales/yr; stable regime.
Comparables: Nami EB03-053 alt-art · Other Promotion Pack EX Vol.4 chase cards
Forecast band
Bull
$741
Bear
$38
6–24mo range
$109–$599
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 55/100
- Character popularity8/10 ×3
Nami — strong, rising collector demand ('Nami surge' on SNKRDUNK).
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity6/10 ×3
Promotion Pack EX Vol.4 — limited promo distribution.
- Artwork uniqueness8/10 ×2.5
Premium promo alt-art treatment.
- Collector demand8/10 ×2
Clears ~$350 raw within weeks of a May 2026 release.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions5/10 ×1.5
Base EB03-006 + this promo + EB03-053 alt — some substitution.
- Estimated print availability6/10 ×1.5
Promo-pack limited; tighter supply than a booster print.
- Set importance5/10 ×1.5
Promotion Pack EX campaign.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
JP promo.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 8/10 | ×3 | Nami — strong, rising collector demand ('Nami surge' on SNKRDUNK). |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 6/10 | ×3 | Promotion Pack EX Vol.4 — limited promo distribution. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 8/10 | ×2.5 | Premium promo alt-art treatment. |
| Collector demand | 8/10 | ×2 | Clears ~$350 raw within weeks of a May 2026 release. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Base EB03-006 + this promo + EB03-053 alt — some substitution. |
| Estimated print availability | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Promo-pack limited; tighter supply than a booster print. |
| Set importance | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Promotion Pack EX campaign. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | JP promo. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |