Published 2026-07-29 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (medium conviction)
$60–$145
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The '25 One Piece Day Luffy — the Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute art. A ~$65 launch that re-rated ~4× in eight months, but it was reprinted once, so it's a demand story with a supply asterisk.
- Design: the Elbaf-arc LEGO-brick showcase art — the One Piece Day '25 chase Luffy.
- Two forms: the opened single trades ~$160 raw; the still-sealed collection ~$275 (it holds this Luffy + a Day'25 DON!!) — the box carries a premium over the single.
- Market: ~$160 raw single / ~$380 PSA 10 on variant-matched eBay last-sold; launched ~$65 (Nov '25) and ran ~4×.
- Supply asterisk: reprinted once (Oct/Nov '25), so the 'lottery = scarce' story is capped — this is why the opened single lagged the sealed box.
- Founder does not hold this card (disclosed).
Biggest risk: The re-rate is real but the reprint history caps it — a further reprint would push the single down. JP copies clear below EN/global, and a BGS 10 black-label has hit four figures, but that's an outlier grade, not the market. This is a demand read on a card whose supply is not fully fixed.
Sources: eBay last-sold (P-110, variant-matched, 2026-07-29) · SNKRDUNK (card 686000)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$159 from 5 sold comps ($153–$175); latest 2026-07-29.
- Liquidity ~5.0 sales/yr; falling regime.
Comparables: One Piece Day '24 (ST10-006 all-gears, ~$450 raw) · One Piece Day '26 (P-161 Luffy, pre-lottery) · Sealed Day'25 collection (~$275)
Forecast band
Bull
$180
Bear
$60
6–24mo range
$60–$145
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 54/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character.
- Comparable Winner cards3/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on its own deep One Piece Day comps (NO_MODEL).
- Tournament exclusivity5/10 ×3
ONE PIECE DAY'25 Premium Card Collection — Premium Bandai lottery distribution, not packs.
- Artwork uniqueness7/10 ×2.5
Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute art — a distinct One Piece Day showcase print.
- Collector demand8/10 ×2
Deep, liquid market — dozens of recent PSA 10 sales clustered ~$350–430; steady demand.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions3/10 ×1.5
Sold two ways — opened single (~$160) and still-sealed collection (~$275) — plus EN/JP/CN prints and a gold-textured foil; match the form.
- Estimated print availability4/10 ×1.5
Reprinted once (Oct/Nov '25), so the lottery-scarce framing is capped — supply is not fully fixed.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
ONE PIECE DAY — the franchise's flagship annual event line.
- Regional availability5/10 ×1
JP lottery; EN/CN copies exist and clear lower — a global collector base competes for it.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 3/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on its own deep One Piece Day comps (NO_MODEL). |
| Tournament exclusivity | 5/10 | ×3 | ONE PIECE DAY'25 Premium Card Collection — Premium Bandai lottery distribution, not packs. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 7/10 | ×2.5 | Elbaf/LEGO-brick tribute art — a distinct One Piece Day showcase print. |
| Collector demand | 8/10 | ×2 | Deep, liquid market — dozens of recent PSA 10 sales clustered ~$350–430; steady demand. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Sold two ways — opened single (~$160) and still-sealed collection (~$275) — plus EN/JP/CN prints and a gold-textured foil; match the form. |
| Estimated print availability | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Reprinted once (Oct/Nov '25), so the lottery-scarce framing is capped — supply is not fully fixed. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | ONE PIECE DAY — the franchise's flagship annual event line. |
| Regional availability | 5/10 | ×1 | JP lottery; EN/CN copies exist and clear lower — a global collector base competes for it. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |