Published 2026-07-03 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$567–$3,147
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
One of OP13's marquee chase cards — the comic-panel Luffy clearing ~$1,850 raw with a deep, liquid graded market above it.
- Design: the manga/comic-panel treatment — the middle rung of a three-card ladder sharing the same iconic Luffy pose.
- Market depth: frequent, corroborated raw + PSA 10 sales (~$3.2k graded) — High confidence is earned, not asserted.
- Ladder: base SEC-P below (~$100), Red Comic SEC-RSP above (~$10,300).
- Risk-aware: a four-figure card in a fast-moving hype set — it moves quickly both ways.
- Not a founder-held position (the founder holds the base SEC-P sibling).
Biggest risk: A four-figure card in a fast-moving hype set — most exposed to an OP13 or Luffy-sentiment cooldown, and to grading supply as PSA populations climb.
Sources: SNKRDUNK (OP13-118 SEC-SP Comic Parallel, card 676002)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$1857 from 3 sold comps ($1739–$1857); latest 2026-07-03.
- Liquidity ~3.0 sales/yr; stable regime.
Comparables: OP13-118 Luffy SEC-P (base) · OP13-118 Luffy Red Manga (SEC-RSP) · Ace OP13-119 SEC-SP
Forecast band
Bull
$3,890
Bear
$196
6–24mo range
$567–$3,147
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 58/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity6/10 ×3
SEC-SP comic parallel — a low-pull chase slot.
- Artwork uniqueness9/10 ×2.5
Distinctive manga/comic-panel treatment — an OP13 signature look.
- Collector demand9/10 ×2
Deep, liquid market: frequent raw + PSA 10 clears.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions5/10 ×1.5
Sits between the base SEC-P and the apex SEC-RSP red comic.
- Estimated print availability3/10 ×1.5
Scarce parallel pull rate.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set.
- Regional availability4/10 ×1
JP print.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 6/10 | ×3 | SEC-SP comic parallel — a low-pull chase slot. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 9/10 | ×2.5 | Distinctive manga/comic-panel treatment — an OP13 signature look. |
| Collector demand | 9/10 | ×2 | Deep, liquid market: frequent raw + PSA 10 clears. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Sits between the base SEC-P and the apex SEC-RSP red comic. |
| Estimated print availability | 3/10 | ×1.5 | Scarce parallel pull rate. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set. |
| Regional availability | 4/10 | ×1 | JP print. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |