Published 2026-07-03 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$3,533–$16,957
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The apex of the OP13-118 design ladder — the rarest Red Comic treatment, a five-figure grail (~$10,300 raw) the whole ladder is priced against.
- Scarcity: the rarest pull slot of the trio — the Red Comic parallel.
- Market: ~$10,300 raw with a five-figure PSA 10 book above it (~$22k–27k).
- Anchor: it validates the design at five figures — its strength is what pulls the cheaper siblings up.
- Confidence: multiple corroborated raw sales plus a deep graded book — a real market, not a thin sample.
- Not a founder-held position (the founder holds the base SEC-P sibling).
Biggest risk: A five-figure, thin-by-absolute-count market: a handful of sales set the price, so single-transaction swings are large. Most exposed to a broad One Piece high-end cooldown, a Luffy-sentiment reversal, or PSA population growth eroding the graded premium.
Sources: SNKRDUNK (OP13-118 SEC-RSP Red Comic Parallel, card 676003)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$10245 from 4 sold comps ($10245–$10556); latest 2026-07-03.
- Liquidity ~4.0 sales/yr; stable regime.
Comparables: OP13-118 Luffy Manga (SEC-SP) · OP13-118 Luffy SEC-P (base) · Ace OP13-119 SEC-RSP
Forecast band
Bull
$21,055
Bear
$1,484
6–24mo range
$3,533–$16,957
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 62/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity8/10 ×3
SEC-RSP red comic — the rarest pull slot in the set.
- Artwork uniqueness10/10 ×2.5
The red comic treatment — OP13's apex chase art.
- Collector demand10/10 ×2
Five-figure clears with a robust PSA 10 market above (~$22k–27k).
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions5/10 ×1.5
Top of the three-card design ladder (SEC-P / SEC-SP / SEC-RSP).
- Estimated print availability2/10 ×1.5
Extremely scarce — the lowest pull rate of the trio.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set.
- Regional availability4/10 ×1
JP print.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 8/10 | ×3 | SEC-RSP red comic — the rarest pull slot in the set. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 10/10 | ×2.5 | The red comic treatment — OP13's apex chase art. |
| Collector demand | 10/10 | ×2 | Five-figure clears with a robust PSA 10 market above (~$22k–27k). |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 5/10 | ×1.5 | Top of the three-card design ladder (SEC-P / SEC-SP / SEC-RSP). |
| Estimated print availability | 2/10 | ×1.5 | Extremely scarce — the lowest pull rate of the trio. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set. |
| Regional availability | 4/10 | ×1 | JP print. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |