One Piece Day '26 (P-161 Luffy) — a dated read, before the lottery
- Day '24 — ST10-006 (all-gears)
- raw ~$450
- Day '25 — P-110 sealed set
- ~$285 (raw single ~$160)
- Day '25 — P-110 PSA 10
- ~$330–450
- Day '26 — P-161 (preorder)
- ~$450 · unreleased
Verdict — Preorders already ask ~$450 for a card that hasn't shipped — pricing it ahead of where '25 sits after a year. Strong demand, but two things cap it: post-lottery supply floods, and these sets get reprinted (‘24 twice, ‘25 once). Our pre-lottery read: settles ~$180–280, upside $300–450 if reprints stay limited.
The short answer: The One Piece Day '26 Premium Card Collection is a Japanese, Premium Bandai lottery release (starts Aug 22, 2026) containing a new Monkey D. Luffy P-161 promo and a One Piece Day '26 DON!! promo. It hasn't shipped, but preorders already ask ~$450. That's a bet on scarcity — and the honest risk is that these collections get reprinted. Below: what each year's One Piece Day Luffy is actually worth, and our dated, falsifiable estimate for '26.
This is a First Read — a pre-market prediction we publish before real sales exist, then grade in public after the market forms. It is a hypothesis, not a sold comp. Independent analysis of physical collectibles; not financial advice.
One Piece Day '24 vs '25 vs '26 — which Luffy, what's it worth
The single most confusing thing about these cards is that each year is a different Luffy with a different serial, and people mix them up constantly. Here's the map, on real sold comps:
| Year | The card | Art | Market now | Reprinted? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| '24 | ST10-006 (SR) | Every Luffy gear, 1 → 5 | ~$450 raw NM | ~2× |
| '25 | P-110 | Elbaf / Loki, LEGO-brick background | sealed set ~$285 · raw single ~$160 · PSA 10 ~$330–450 | 1× |
| '26 | P-161 | Luffy over a mural of the cast (new) | preorder ~$450 · not yet released | — |
The '24 ST10-006 is the collector favourite — the all-gears art (Gear 1 through Gear 5 in one frame) is the most-loved of the three, and it commands the highest price despite two reprints. Note there was also a cheaper, separate "Premium Card Collection Day'24" product — don't confuse it with the ~$450 all-gears ST10-006.
What '25 did — the closest comp for '26
The '25 collection is the cleanest template for '26: same format (one Luffy promo + one DON!! promo, JP lottery). Its path:
- Launch (Nov '25): ~$65 presale.
- Now (~8 months later): sealed set ~$285 — about 4× up.
- But the opened single P-110 sits at ~$147 (SNKRDUNK), and it got reprinted once — which is exactly why the single lagged the sealed box.
So the '25 story is real appreciation, tempered by a reprint. That's the pattern to price '26 against — not an uncapped moonshot.
The '26 read — and the risk nobody's pricing in
Preorders at ~$450 show demand running well ahead of where '25 launched. Your instinct that '26 will be popular is backed by real money. But two forces pull the other way:
- Preorder ≠ post-lottery. Once lottery winners receive and flip, secondary supply spikes and prices usually settle down first, then climb (like '25: $65 → $285). A ~$450 preorder can soften near launch.
- Reprint risk is the real ceiling. '24 was reprinted ~2×, '25 once. Bandai reprints these collections, which quietly caps the "lottery = scarce" thesis. A reprint announcement could crater a speculative preorder.
Our First Read (dated, to be graded after Aug 22):
- Launch / settle (Sep '26): ~$180–$280 sealed.
- 6–12 month potential: $300–$450, if the art lands and reprints stay limited.
- Reprint downside: ~$120–$180.
- Conviction: Medium — strong demand, offset by genuine reprint history and an art that isn't public yet.
How to not get burned on the '26 preorder
- Know which year you're buying. '24 = ST10-006 all-gears (
$450). '25 = P-110 LEGO-brick ($285 sealed). '26 = P-161 (unreleased). The serial tells you instantly. - Sealed vs opened is a real spread. The '25 sealed set (
$285) trades well above the opened single ($147). If you're buying to hold, sealed carries the premium. - Watch for a reprint notice before paying a scarcity premium — it's the single biggest downside here.
- Preorder price is an ask, not a sold. Let the lottery clear and real sales print before assuming ~$450 is the floor.
We'll grade this read after the Aug 22 lottery and log the result — winners and misses — in our public track record. That's the point of a First Read: anyone can guess early; we measure whether we were right.