Published 2026-07-03 · Horizon 6–24 months · Model forecast — not a market quote
The forecast
6–24mo forecast (high conviction)
$80–$170
Desirability profile
Why the card is desirable — collectibility vs competitive use. This is a rating, not a price: the fair value above is set only by real comps.
The thesis — why it may be mispriced
The cheapest way into a Luffy design collectors have already validated at four and five figures — same iconic pose as the pricier Manga and Red Manga.
- Design relevance: identical Luffy pose/composition to the Comic 'manga' (SEC-SP, ~$1,850) and Red Comic 'red manga' (SEC-RSP, ~$10,300).
- Pull-up: as the manga siblings cement themselves as OP13's marquee chases, the SEC-P inherits their relevance — the accessible entry point.
- Floor: OP13 packs/cases are expensive by default, so even the base SEC has a real cost-to-obtain (~$80+).
- Grading upside: a healthy PSA 10 market sits above it (recent SOLD ~$385) on a clean copy.
- Confidence: High reflects conviction in the design-relevance thesis, not the raw sample size.
- Founder holds this card (disclosed position, cost basis ~$5).
Biggest risk: The raw anchor still rests on a thin recent sample, so the point estimate is soft even if the directional thesis is strong. The ceiling is capped by the manga/red-manga siblings absorbing the top-end demand; the clearest downside is a set-wide OP13 cooldown or the pricier parallels de-rating and dragging the whole design's premium down.
Sources: SNKRDUNK (OP13-118 SEC-P, card 676024)
Evidence & comparables
- raw anchor ~$84 from 2 sold comps ($84–$137); latest 2026-07-03.
- Liquidity ~2.0 sales/yr; insufficient-data regime.
Comparables: OP13-118 Luffy Manga (SEC-SP) · OP13-118 Luffy Red Manga (SEC-RSP) · Ace OP13-119 SEC-P
Forecast band
Bull
$203
Bear
$80
6–24mo range
$80–$170
What would change our mind
Revise higher if
- Sold-velocity rises / liquidity deepens for this exact variant
- PSA population stays flat (scarcity holds)
Revise lower if
- A reprint or a new serialized run is announced
- PSA population grows materially (scarcity erodes)
The ledger — permanent & accountable
No settled comp yet — the clock is running. This forecast is frozen and will resolve to a terminal verdict at the horizon. Never edited.
Factor breakdown
A weighted summary (weights shown) — the collector and competitive axes are scored separately, so competitive factors never drag the collector headline.
Collector factors — 50/100
- Character popularity10/10 ×3
Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character.
- Comparable Winner cards2/10 ×3
Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand.
- Tournament exclusivity4/10 ×3
SEC pulled from Carrying On His Will boosters.
- Artwork uniqueness7/10 ×2.5
Secret Rare alternate-art parallel.
- Collector demand6/10 ×2
Steady ~$100 raw; the higher chase demand sits on the comic parallels.
- Winner-card history1/10 ×2
Not a tournament-prize card.
- Existing versions5/10 ×1.5
SEC-P base + SEC-SP comic + SEC-RSP red comic — many parallels.
- Estimated print availability4/10 ×1.5
Booster SEC from a recent set; moderate supply.
- Set importance6/10 ×1.5
Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set.
- Regional availability4/10 ×1
JP print.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character popularity | 10/10 | ×3 | Luffy — the franchise's most-collected character. |
| Comparable Winner cards | 2/10 | ×3 | Not a winner-cohort card; valued on comps + demand. |
| Tournament exclusivity | 4/10 | ×3 | SEC pulled from Carrying On His Will boosters. |
| Artwork uniqueness | 7/10 | ×2.5 | Secret Rare alternate-art parallel. |
| Collector demand | 6/10 | ×2 | Steady ~$100 raw; the higher chase demand sits on the comic parallels. |
| Winner-card history | 1/10 | ×2 | Not a tournament-prize card. |
| Existing versions | 5/10 | ×1.5 | SEC-P base + SEC-SP comic + SEC-RSP red comic — many parallels. |
| Estimated print availability | 4/10 | ×1.5 | Booster SEC from a recent set; moderate supply. |
| Set importance | 6/10 | ×1.5 | Carrying On His Will — a major anniversary-era set. |
| Regional availability | 4/10 | ×1 | JP print. |
Competitive factors — 10/100
- Tournament playability1/10 ×1
Collected, not played.
- Meta relevance1/10 ×1
No meta relevance.
| Factor | Score | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tournament playability | 1/10 | ×1 | Collected, not played. |
| Meta relevance | 1/10 | ×1 | No meta relevance. |